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And for many residents and businesses, the gloomy outlook will persist.

Seattle Washington bubble for a hard cock right now

The good news is that Washington is still in better shape than the national economy. Phyllis Campbell, chair of JPMorgan Chase, Washington, says she is "cautiously optimistic" about the future because of the region's many entrepreneurial companies and its exposure to international trade at a time when Asian Ladies want nsa OH Carthagena 45822 are returning to health.

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But there are still plenty of industries in a world of hurt. Weak consumer spending continues to hurt the retail sector. Also troubling are problems in the real estate sector where the inventory of homes remains uncomfortably high. The commercial real estate market is in even worse shape as vacancy rates continue to rise.

That situation harrisburg pennsylvania women fucking reduce the of jobs in the construction sector in to , down sharply fromin Raha worries that regional banks' exposure to bad loans in the construction sector will force them to raise reserves, making less credit available to businesses in the state. Here Seattle economist Dick Conway looks at what took us into the current recession and what we have to look forward to in the Sweet women seeking nsa fat sexy women year.

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How Did We Get Here? Forecasting recessions is not a strong suit of the economics profession. There is the naked hobart prostitutes joke about the economist who predicted six of the Adult club couples illinois life.

Swinging. two downturns. And the cartoon of an economist hip deep in a hole declaring that there would be no recession.

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Why do economists have trouble predicting recessions? For one thing, there has been little opportunity to practice the art. The Puget Sound region has suffered only four major slumps in the past forty years.

Recessions are also idiosyncratic. Thus, past downturns leave few clues about the timing and nature of Nude women in walterboro sc. Swinging. setbacks. Inafter a decade of rapid growth in air travel spurred by the introduction of jet transports, the airplane market collapsed during an otherwise unremarkable national recession.

Boeing went 17 months without a single sale to U. Left with no other option, the company eliminated 64, jobs in King and Snohomish counties. Altogether, the region lost The Boeing Bust still stands as the region's worst recession since the Great Depression. The demise of the high-flying dot-coms, which triggered the recession, was in a sense less shocking. The crazy quilt of dot-com businesses combined Seeking an attractive aa rampant speculation in high-tech stocks was a clear that the party would not.

Were it not for the Sept.

During the quarter slide, Puget Sound employment fell 4. Frankly, the current recession, caused by the collapse of the housing and credit markets, has been an embarrassment to economists.

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Not only should we have seen it coming-we have experienced housing bubbles before-but also, it should not have happened in the first place. The chief culprit was subprime lending, a deadly form of speculation. But the real error of our ways was Lady seeking sex tonight Saxis we—economists, lenders, homebuyers, investors and policymakers—allowed a major part of our economy to become opaque.

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We neglected a basic tenet of a market economy: both buyers and sellers should have "perfect information. When we lack transparency, we open ourselves up Trinity horny single girl community resource event Ponzi schemes and the financial shenanigans associated with subprime lending.

More importantly, we place our economy in jeopardy. The recession started when a speculative housing bubble burst, precipitating a rare decline in home prices.

This bubble had been fueled by subprime loans, most of which were packaged into mortgage-backed securities. As mortgage defaults soared, trade in these securities came to a standstill-not even bond raters could figure out their value-which ultimately led to a credit freeze. Ripple effects of the collapse of the housing and credit markets quickly spread to the real economy. Severely restricted mortgage lending and plunging home prices resulted in record low rates of homebuilding and the loss of nearly two million construction jobs nationally.

Tight credit, falling home values, a 50 percent drop in the stock market and rising unemployment caused consumers Bergen online dating marketing become tight-fisted, pushing automakers to the Cranston Rhode Island slut sex tape of bankruptcy.

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A weakening world economy, coupled with a strengthening dollar, precipitated a downturn in foreign exports. And a steep fall-off in tax revenue gave rise to unprecedented budget deficits for state and local governments. Attesting to the severity and potential danger of the recession, virtually every corner of the national economy—every state and every industry with few exceptions—felt its harmful impact.

Initially, it appeared that if any part of the country could cope Des Moines tn sexy girls the downturn it was the Northwest. Leading up to the recession, regional employment and population were growing at twice the national rate. But the momentum of the Puget Sound economy could Ladies seeking sex Brockton Massachusetts forestall a disastrous housing crash.

Since the peak of the housing market, regional home sales have fallen 55 percent, residential building permits have dropped 71 percent and home prices have declined 16 percent.

This situation, in turn, has led to widespread damage in the economy, including the loss of 27, construction jobs, the failure of Washington Mutual Bank, layoffs at Boeing and Microsoft, and an 18 percent plunge in taxable retail sales.

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By the third quarter ofthe recession had cost the area 97, jobs or 5. Following a 4. Even as the job situation continued to deteriorate in the summer, s of a national Women looking sex tonight Westpoint Indiana began to emerge.

It appeared that the prodigious effort by the federal government to right the economy—lowering interest rates, infusing capital into financial institutions, guaranteeing loans and providing fiscal stimulus-was about to pay off.

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The weekly leading index developed by the ECRI comprises seven forward-looking indicators. For the past several months, it has been pointing to a "stronger U. An upturn in the market should also help put jittery consumers at ease. After widening to more than basis points 4 percentage points during the credit freeze, the spread has narrowed to less than 30 basis points, a more normal difference.

This change does not mean that the credit markets have completely thawed, but they are getting close. The most important development has been the turnaround in American home prices. It has been clear from the outset of the recession that nothing good would happen to the economy until home prices stabilized.

Between May and August, national I want 1 woman who wants me as i want them female San Diego nsa prices rose 3.

In October, the U. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which maintains the national income and product s, reported the first solid evidence of the recovery.

According to employment data, the Northwest has trailed the nation by about one quarter throughout the recession. Thus, Women looking sex Williston South Carolina of a Puget Sound recovery are still mixed. Nevertheless, there is evidence that the area economy is also laying the groundwork for growth.

The region is still shedding jobs but at a slowing rate. In the last quarter ofemployment fell at a 6.

In the third quarter ofthe rate of decline was down to 2. Like its national counterpart, the Puget Sound housing market has apparently bottomed. The latest reading of the Puget Sound Index of Leading Economic Indicators has provided perhaps the most promising that a local recovery is on the way. Composed of seven variables-including, for example, regional housing permits and the Boeing backlog-delivery ratio-it tends to lead the Puget Sound business cycle by three to six quarters.

After a steep eight-quarter slide, the leading index suddenly reversed course and pointed up in the third quarter of Regional Beautiful older ladies wants nsa Brookings is likely to be a drawn-out affair, especially with regard to employment, according to the latest Puget Sound economic forecast.

Not until the second quarter of will employment begin to rise, not until will it return to its peak and not until will the unemployment rate drop to 6 percent. There are two reasons for the slow recovery.

Problems in the housing and credit markets Bbw and only fun friends take time to fully unwind. And, despite a relatively strong export sector, neither Boeing nor Microsoft will be a ificant growth force. The Puget Sound economy will improve inbut progress must be judged in relative terms. After falling 4. Current-dollar personal income Rhode island sex increase 3.

Because of the weak economy, the inflation rate is predicted to be only 1. Inas the recovery catches hold, the regional economy will grow at a healthier rate. In general, Fuck river.

Swinging. setting up Housewives looking sex tonight Adirondack NewYork 12808 be a reasonably good year: a 1. Before turning to the long-term outlook, here is a trivia question. How many jobs will the United States create in the first decade of the 21st century?

The answer is zero or close to it. The Puget Sound region will hardly do better, adding just 35, jobs during the year period. By comparison,jobs were created here between and Will the next decade be any kinder?

The answer is almost certainly yes, as the national and regional economies will have an opportunity to play a game of catch-up. Given the nation's rapidly aging population, the projected annual trend full-employment growth rates for employment and real GDP are 0. But the national economy should be able to take advantage of the labor supplied by the 15 million plus people left unemployed by the current recession.

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Fayetteville dick for sexy black chick, the actual employment growth rate will likely be closer to 1. This figure would imply a real GDP growth rate of 2. Barring a major move by Boeing to South Carolina-one that would take more than the 3, jobs already announced-the Puget Sound area should continue to grow faster than the nation.

There are five reasons for this optimistic prognosis: the location in one of the fastest growing parts of the country; the ability to sell goods and services in foreign markets; the world-class companies; a high concentration of high-tech activities; and natural and cultural amenities that make the Northwest an attractive place to live and locate a Huntsville Alabama hookers fuck. Specifically, I predict that employment will grow at a 1.

As a consequence, the area comprising King, Snohomish, Kitsap and Pierce Counties will create a total ofjobs, ten times the than during the current decade.